From the very beginning of his electoral campaign, Barack Obama stated that he wanted to make the “forgotten war” in Afghanistan the main front of the “war on terror”. A few months later, even before Obama's election, Afghanistan had already become the top foreign policy issue in the United States.
With much credit given to the troop “surge” in somewhat stabilizing Iraq, more attention has been given to Afghanistan. At the same time, security conditions have deeply worsened as the Taliban-led insurgency spread all the way to Kabul's neighboring provinces and militancy in Pakistan poses a serious threat to that country's stability and internal unity.
Applying the Iraqi Surge Strategy to Afghanistan
President-elect Obama's solution for Afghanistan is essentially an Iraq-like “surge”: More American troops – newly withdrawn from Iraq – and bribing Pashtun tribal insurgents in turning against the Taliban in the same fashion that the “Awakening Councils” in Iraq where armed and paid to fight al-Qaeda instead of American troops.
Obama also wants to “get tough” on Pakistan and use “carrot and stick” diplomacy with economic, political and military support for its civilian government while keeping the pressure high with threats of US cross-border military operations if Islamabad does not act on militants in its tribal areas.
The Question of Obama's Real Objective
However, what Obama has not really made clear is the question of his main objective in Afghanistan. Does he sincerely want to bring peace to Afghanistan and look at all possible solutions toward that goal, which will eventually mean to politically engage sections of the insurgency and bring China, India, Iran and Russia on board of a multilateral security initiative?
Otherwise, does he want to pursue mainly geopolitical objectives of American power projection under the guise of the “war on terror” in which a prolongation of the war becomes of goal in itself? The war in Afghanistan then becomes a strategy to maintain a long-term US and NATO military presence in Central and South Asia, extend NATO partnerships to Caucasus and Central Asian countries, contain Chinese, Iranian and Russian influence, access Caspian oil and gas and keep an eye on India and Pakistan.
Considering Obama's “outsider” status and lack of links to the US security establishment, Big Oil and other Washington lobbies as well as his general message of change, humanism and multilateralism, it could go the first way. But considering his national security and foreign policy team in addition to the immense pressure from powerful vested interests that comes with the world's most powerful job, it could also go the second way.
Economic Troubles and the China Factor
Geopolitical developments can help predict which way the Obama administration will go. First of all, the global financial crisis will certainly put weight on the fast resolution and peace track. Not only will financial considerations and Obama's focus on domestic issues make long-term military commitment in Central Asia less attractive but pressure from other countries could also influence US policies on Afghanistan.
Some analysts believe that Obama's first official trip abroad could be to Beijing, given China's economic weight and important stabilizing potential. But if China is to accept a new status of global economic “stakeholder”, it will also demand to be accorded a greater voice on global security issues. Given China's proximity to Afghanistan and its interests in containing the risks of militancy spreading to its restive Xinjiang province, Beijing can be expected to make clear its growing impatience toward US-NATO failure to pacify to war-torn country.
SCO Regional Pressure
Likewise, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia also have high stakes in the Afghan conflict. For Pakistan, the longer it goes on, the greater the risk of falling over the brink of absolute failed-statehood which could inflame the whole region from India to Central Asia. For the same reason – and even more so after the recent Mumbai terror attacks – New Delhi is realizing that a long-term US presence in Afghanistan may not be in its best security interests after all and could move into greater coordination with Moscow and Tehran on its Afghan policy.
The formation of a China-India-Iran-Russia coalition, based around on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), pressuring for wider regional coordination and the holding of an international conference on Afghanistan could become a reality under the Obama administration. So if his real objective is rather one of projection of US and NATO influence, his success will essentially depend on his ability to apply divide-and-rule tactics toward Afghanistan's neighboring powers with the same level of skill that his predecessor has.
Vincent Gagnon-Lefebvre - I am an freelance writer from Quebec currently living between there and Laos. I just graduated from Université Laval in Quebec City ...
