Barack Obama enters the White House as the new President of the United States with a lot of critically important work waiting for him. Apart from the global financial crisis, the question of climate change, economic troubles at home and scores of other domestic issues, Obama will also face huge foreign policy challenges as he inherits two unfinished wars, a broken down Middle East peace initiative and strained relations with Russia.
A Clinton III Administration?
In front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State nominee Hilary Clinton stated that the foundation of the Obama Administration's foreign policy would be the concepts of “cooperative engagement” and “smart power,” as reported by Jim Lobe of IPS. Looking at Obama's list of cabinet nominees, it is easy to see his presidency as a Clinton III Administration.
However, when Bill Clinton came to power as the first post-Cold War president in a context of uncontested US supremacy in world affairs, it was easy a talk about “cooperation” and “smart” or “soft” power when no other country could pretend to be a political, economic or military rival. Obama comes into a context of slow but steady decline of US power and influence, with a ravaged economy, an unspeakable level of dept and a new cast of emerging powers unwilling to follow US dictates.
Troubles in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine
Two years ago, King Abdullah of Jordan warned of the danger of seeing the Middle East being torn apart by three deep crisis or civil wars: in Iraq, in Lebanon and in the Palestinian Territories. What the all-weather US ally was in fact trying to say was that current trends in the region were at risk of unsettling the regional status quo, weakening the so-called “moderate camp” and emboldening radical actors of change and defiance of the current order.
Today, Iran has emerged as the biggest winner of growing stability in Iraq and the Maliki government has also received support from Syria, while other Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt are still lukewarm towards the Shiite-dominated pro-Iranian government in Baghdad.
In Lebanon, political tensions were finally resolved at the benefit of Hezbollah and Syria through Qatari mediation and the Shiite resistance movement has emerged from its 2006 war with Israel stronger and more popular than ever throughout the Arab and Islamic world.
In the Palestinian Territories, the US green fire to the recent Israeli offensive on Gaza has weakened Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah-led government instead of diminishing Hamas' popular support. The Bush Administration and Israeli goal of seeing Abbas returning to Gaza and affirming his authority over both the West Bank and Gaza has not been accomplished by the offensive.
New Realities and Syria-Iran Affirmation
Moreover, the Gaza war brought severe criticism on US allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, has destroyed the Saudi-led consensus over the Arab League peace proposal toward Israel and has divided the “moderate camp”, with Qatar siding with Syria and Hamas. Turkey – Israel's only Muslim ally – has also broke ranks and Prime Minister Ergodan has even called for Israel to be banned from the UN.
President Obama will have to deal with these new geopolitical realities. He will have to come to the realization that the United States can no longer fully rely on traditional allies that are weakened or discredited like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Fatah; unreliable like Turkey; or completely isolated like Israel. He will have to come to terms with the fact that countries like Syria or Iran or even actors like Hezbollah and Hamas can no longer be ignored. The US will desperately need Syria in Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and Iraq and it will need Iran in Iraq and Afghanistan.
US withdrawal from Iraq will make cooperation with Damascus and Tehran even more critical, while at the same time, it will strengthen their position in the Middle East and confirm their newly affirmative role in regional security.
Challenges Elsewhere in the World
Apart from the Middle East, Obama also faces a whole set of challenges: an increasingly worsening situation in Afghanistan, instability in Pakistan, tensions between nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors and strained relations with an asserting and energy-rich Russia requesting a greater role in world affairs.
Vincent Gagnon-Lefebvre - I am an freelance writer from Quebec currently living between there and Laos. I just graduated from Université Laval in Quebec City ...
