To really understand the war in South Ossetia and to put the conflict into context, it is primordial to go beyond finger pointing and propaganda stemming from both sides. So lets put the actual conflict beside and observe the contextual elements that can explain how tensions between Russia and NATO could have become so profound.
There are four main contextual elements to take into account:
- The enlargement of NATO towards the former Soviet sphere of influence;
- Energy geopolitics in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia;
- Washington's contradictory policies towards stability in the Caucasus;
- And the independence of Kosovo.
The fourth and last element to consider, and maybe the most important, is the independence of Kosovo. Many have stated that the independence of the Serbian province – under a NATO protectorate since 1999 – was a very dangerous precedent that ignored precepts of international law and threatened regional peace by provoking Russia. It is largely this inconsiderate urge of the United States and a minority of world states (45 for now) to recognize the independence of this tiny territory without any sensibility to Russia's concerns, that led to the war in Georgia.
For the very first time since the Second World War, the borders of a sovereign state (Serbia) were redefined by an occupying force (NATO) and so, without the acknowledgment of the UN Security Council. All the rules and principles of international law of the last sixty years were completely discarded.
The Importance of Kosovo
Why Kosovo and why now? Albanian Kosovars are not under any new threat from Belgrade and Serbia has evolved into a rather mature democracy turned more than ever toward Europe. But maybe Washington would not have cared so much if it was not for Camp Bondsteel – the biggest US military base outside the United States. A military joke tells how only two human-made constructs can be seen from space: the Great Wall of China and Camp Bondsteel.
Since the end of the NATO campaign, one of the base's purpose has been to assure the security of the trans-Balkan or AMB pipeline (Albania-Macedonia-Bulgaria) that passes near and to which Albania had conditioned it's participation to the independence of it's Albanian-speaking cousins in Kosovo. To link the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, AMB is in direct competition with it's Russian-supported alternative : the Burgas-Alexandropoulis (Bulgaria-Greece) pipeline. We are thus back to energy and pipeline geopolitics.
Camp Bondsteel and US Power Projection
Camp Bondsteel plays an essential supplying role for the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan and would also play an important role in the eventuality of an attack on Iran. Also, it is highly probable that Bondsteel holds one of the CIA's secret prisons where suspected terrorists are allegedly tortured.
In Moscow's eyes, Camp Bondsteel is too close to Russia's border for not presenting a potential threat. The base is even more of an affront as Russia opposed NATO's military intervention in Kosovo in 1999. Once the sovereignty of Kovoso handed back to Serbia, Belgrade – given it's historic friendship with Russia – would in all probability order the US military to leave the base.
Therefore, the United States had high interests in granting independence to the small province. Kosovo has become a central location from which it can project its military might. But why grant independence to Kosovo and not to South Ossetia – as well as Abkhazia – since a similar humanitarian rationale can also apply to the Georgian breakaway province?
Indeed, that was exactly Russia's point of view and it responded to the independence of Kosovo by threatening to recognize the independences of the Georgian breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia – now a thing done. This could thus have pushed Tbilissi to conduct its military assault on South Ossetia last August.
Vincent Gagnon-Lefebvre - I am an freelance writer from Quebec currently living between there and Laos. I just graduated from Université Laval in Quebec City ...
