To really understand to war in South Ossetia and to put the conflict into context, it is primordial to go beyond finger pointing and propaganda stemming from both sides. So lets put the actual conflict beside and observe the contextual elements that can explain how tensions between Russia and NATO could have become so profound.
There are four main contextual elements to take into account:
- The enlargement of NATO towards the former Soviet sphere of influence;
- Energy geopolitics in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia;
- Washington's contradictory policies towards stability in the Caucasus;
- And the independence of Kosovo.
The third element to consider is the issue of persistent instability in the Caucasus and Washington's contradictory policies towards the goal of regional stabilization. From Russia's point of view, the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s was a practice run for a future breakup of the Russian Caucasus. These doubts come from Moscow's suspicion that Washington has in the past been indirectly supporting Chechen militants, via Saudi Arabia, and from the recent far-reaching US influence and penetration in the Caucasus, via Turkey, which is very worrisome for the Russian leadership.
Thus, since the mid 1990s, two rival alliances have formed in the Caucasus: a North-South axis of Russia, Armenia and Iran, and a East-West axis of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, with American support.
Washington's Contradictory Policies
The contradictions in the United States' policies toward the Caucasus can be observed by knowing that, on one hand, nothing would please Washington more than to see Russia getting bled to death in never-ending and unwinnable wars in the Caucasus. These wars would not only neutralize the challenge of Russia as a possible strategic competitor but could also end in the same way than wars in Yugoslavia: by a NATO military intervention to consolidate, in the name of humanitarianism, the independences of every Russian autonomous republic in the Caucasus.
On the other hand, big Western oil interests need stability to assure the construction and security of the pipelines crossing the Caucasus, since geopolitical realities and Washington's geostrategic interests does not allow them to build partnerships with Russia or Iran. The BTC oil pipeline and BTE gas pipeline – both going through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey – are excellent examples. Both pipelines do not really make any economic sense – passing through some very difficult terrain and some very instable territories – but their geostrategic objectives – accessing Caspian Sea and Central Asian energy resources while bypassing both Russia and Iran – is of the utmost importance.
In addition to oil majors, American regional allies, especially Turkey, also desire stability and are becoming increasingly frustrated by Washington's contradictory policies toward the Caucasus.
New Possible Alliances in the Caucasus
These contradictory policies have led to a rapprochement between the two historic rivals that are Russia and Turkey, in part through Iran's mediation efforts. Iran has proposed several times the formation of an Ankara-Moscow-Tehran cooperation triangle with the objective of stabilizing the Caucasus and settle the different conflicts between states (ie. Russia-Georgia, Turkey-Armenia, Azerbaijan-Armenia) through diplomacy and dialog.
On the issue of the Russia-Georgia war over South Ossetia, Turkey – a NATO member – decided to keep a stance of neutrality and proposed to Russia a “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Pact” as a way to resolve conflicting issues in the regions. The proposal would exclude Iran for now – so as to not anger Washington – event though it is essentially a recycling of Tehran's original idea.
Iran also refrained from taking position on the recent war and has confirmed its friendly ties with Georgia in spite of its partnership with Russia and deep tensions with the United States. Tehran has also played a key role in mediating between Turkey and Armenia and between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Therefore, the slow but progressive shift in regional alliances bringing Russia, Turkey and Iran closer together brings the possibility of the formation of an Ankara-Moscow-Tehran cooperation triangle much more likely in a not so distant future. This new alliance would have the will and the resources to settle disputes and sources of instability in the Caucasus, while excluding the Unite States from the process.
This perspective is totally unacceptable from Washington's point of view. Thus, a rapid integration of Georgia into NATO would have the result of reviving tensions by putting a wedge through Russia-Turkey relations, and maybe also break the recent Iran-Turkey cooperative relationship.
Vincent Gagnon-Lefebvre - I am an freelance writer from Quebec currently living between there and Laos. I just graduated from Université Laval in Quebec City ...
